We are here to INSPIRE...
Inspire vision, direction, clarity of economic thought and above all the creation of an environment in which human dignity and rights are preserved, in order to give life force to the ideas of hope and prosperity, not at any cost, but at responsibly true and fair economic factor costs; so that we can encourage the growth and development of sustainable human endeavours
...the rest is just noise! (...and if you where wondering - It's Basics)
Rather than rehash the analysis already performed, we only have two items to add at this stage:
Get your calculators out, or at least keep the Quants busy, because unravelling and implementing reforms are going to cost a lot of money (and we all know who pays for that at the end of the day)
How do we create the ‘Imperfect Competitive’ markets or at least address Oligopolistic Competition more effectively?
In a fiercely competitive international market space the desire to aggregate banks and financial institutions and hence reduce cost economies of scale at the expense of risk accumulation is overwhelming. (Which the discredited Sir Fred Goodwin ex Chief Executive of Royal Bank of Scotland [RBS] can testify to only too well)
Let’s hope the Vickers Report is not the start of the death knell of the UK financial services sector; or perhaps in a cynical way, that is exactly what is (intended) needed to address the UK’s long-term structural reliance on the financial services sector at the expense of a more balanced portfolio of productive output and activity.
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The Market eQuation (MeQ):
Today we are commencing our investigation and outreach to discover what we will call the Market Equation.
Basically the idea is to come up with a mathematical equation and rating or ranking system to assess the state and status of various markets.
Whether this will lead to a theory of Markets that can compete with some of the other theories in existence is open to debate.
The basic premise is this:
There should be a methodology to access the Openness and Fairness of any given market versus other comparable markets. This specific ratio or result should therefore determine the individual participant’s level of engagement and commitment to that specific market. The result should also be able to be repeatable over time in order to elicit trends and movements of particular markets relative to each other.
The basic equation can be expressed as MA2R4K2E3T3 = OF outcome (Open & Fair).
Therefore:
OF = (A)2 x (R)4 x (K)2 x (E)3 x (T)3
And derives from the Market Equation Table listed below:
The Market Equation Table
O
Open
F
Fair
M
Multiple
A
Accessible
Adjoining
R
Random
Rapid
Regular
Repeated
Regulated
Risk
K
Complex
Connected
Competitive
E
Effective
Efficient
Equilibrium
T
Technology
Time
Trade
Key:
Subjectivemeasure
Objective (External) measure
MA2R4K2E3T3 = OF outcome
Therefore: OF = (A)2 x (R)4 x (K)2 x (E)3 x (T)3
The subtler reader might already have seen through this equation. Because by dropping the M (which will always be 1) the letters that remain result in the word raket if unscrambled which in effect is:
RACKET or not? With the additional C being the complex bit so ultimately the Market Equation becomes aCOMPLEX RACKET.
Risk has as one of its essential elements trust as a foundation.
Trust on the other hand has many other factors that interplay and interact on it.
Markets are created when there are needs that are immediately met from you local environment and therefore scarcity around. Market participants step in to fill the void.
As for any subset of Risk, either Operational, Market, Liquidity, Interest, etc. a big part of the assessment process it not just about looking inward and assessing the risk profiles, risk attitudes, risk systems, etc., but an important part of the process is stepping into the realm of uncertainty and looking outwards and the wider market context we find ourselves in.
Being too prescriptive about the individual risk profiles and control systems will only stifle innovation and growth. Some say we need a very healthy dose of growth right now, whereas others are content with the new world order of the ‘anti growth economic’ bias (our description of austerity) we have already entered in the Western Hemisphere.
Our positive risk management framework, also known as Value Oriented Risk Management encapsulates both risk and uncertainty management and combines it with the best offerings of Value Based Management. (For more information or to contact us, please click on the Contact us link).
Our Value Oriented Risk Management is the positive Risk Management focus, acting as an enabler ensuring that you unlock value in your organisation amidst the regulatory compliance constraints added to your management agenda.
We had some very rewarding conversations recently with business partners and peers regarding the Value of Synthesis versus Analysis.
Synthesis we believe to be a ‘higher level’ skill and experience set than traditional analysis. Synthesis requires a natural ‘incubation period’. Very few people are natural ‘synthesists’. You grow and mature into a ‘natural Synthisist’.
Analysts can be taught. In fact a very lucrative business education industrial complex has been built on the back of ‘creating a production line of analysts’. We call them Business Schools churning out master’s level analysts with the three letter MBA title behind their names.
Don’t get us wrong on this one. We are not criticising MBAs or the Business Schools that produce them. Far from it; because we believe that part of the ‘evolutionary process’ of ‘incubating a mature synthesist’ is having a deep and fundamental understanding of analysis and the factors that contribute to making a good analyst.
Two of the key words we used in the above paragraphs were:
1.Incubate
2.Mature
We pause to reflect on these two words, because they are part of a natural evolutionary cycle.
Synthesis is a development process. It doesn’t just occur overnight. The process takes many years, many forms, much frustration, heart-ache, high failure rates, desperation, etc. We hope you understand the philosophical underpinnings of the argument.
The drivers that help define and shape good synthesists are many fold, however, two of the more basic building blocks include:
1.The Tyranny of the Status Quo
2.The Language of the Artist
What do we mean by these two concepts?
The Tyranny of the Status Quo
Mediocrity, lack of risk taking and proper risk management, a ‘level playing field’, universal access, no economic ladder to climb and a social ideology that creates an amorphous mass of despair is what drives the tyranny of the status quo. It is the antithesis of Innovation and Creative Thought. It is the Socialist ideology that drags us all down to the lowest common denominator.
The Language of the Artists
We believe it was Peter Block who claimed in that business life has become ‘infected’ with the language of the Engineer and Scientist. We ‘Business Process Reengineer’ this and that; we ‘Reverse Engineer’ this or that process. We contain, seal and measures finite risks and processes, much like a scientist would work in a ‘Controlled Laboratory Environment’.
But what we really need is the language of the artist and philosopher. We require poetry, motion, flow and creativity in order to establish the correct environment for innovation to ‘spring forth’ naturally and spontaneously.
Even though you would think this to be a natural phenomenon, it is very difficult to achieve in the ‘controlled environment’ of Shareholder Value Creation, due to the narrow focus on hard facts and cool numbers, underpinned by the ‘negative risk management cycle’.
In an article we recently published in a boutique Risk Management Training and Consultancy’s Quarterly Risk Update, we referred to both the positive and negative risk management perspectives.
Negative risk management is “[the] approach in an organisation that is designed to prevent the downside consequences of a transaction, such as (1) mitigating a potential loss or (2) the cost of not complying with regulatory requirements”, whereas in positive risk management “the upside is managed in conjunction with a risk based approach to general management. This is the starting point of Enterprise Risk Management”.
Financial Controllers and CFOs have to ensure that shareholder value is continuously created and then as measured and reported within the framework of Internationally Accepted Financial Reporting Standards and the generally ‘rules based approach’ to compiling those Financial Reports.
This is not a simple task and should we ‘interfere’ here with the language of the artist and philosopher in this process, we are certainly dead set on the course that will lead to ‘confusion, value destruction and financial ruin’. But aren’t we there already?
Has the most recent ‘crisis of confidence’ in the financial system as practiced by the ‘Financial Engineers’ and ‘Quant-type’ mathematicians and scientists not just proved that the old paradigm does not create value, but is still subject to ‘deep-rooted and fundamental’ long-term business cycles?
And yet what do we do? We blame the ‘selfish and selfless’ market capitalists for the problem, rather than address the basic condition that drive the imbalance, namely the ‘imperfect market’ that we create with over burdensome regulation, control and ‘dare we mention the term again ‘financial and business process (re-)engineering’.
We continuously oscillate on the pendulum between the free and ‘planned or controlled’ market forces.
Until we recognise the fact that our policy interventions, ill conceived regulatory frameworks and processes and the financial reporting and ‘engineering’ standards help drive the market mechanism to points of ‘disequilibrium’ where the natural ‘clearing mechanism’ of matched supply and demand cannot function normally; then we will just have to accept the consequences of the natural ‘boom and bust’ economic cycles.
To have ever utter the immortal, nay, ‘notorious’ phrase “we have abolished boom and bust” was not just arrogant but utterly naive and demonstrated a lack of a basic understanding of market forces in the ‘planned and controlled’ market economy camp.
Therefore, to conclude this brief post on the Value of Synthesis, we challenge mature ‘incubated’ professionals to step up to the challenge of redefining the new economic landscape by utilising the language of the artist and philosopher and to practice just a little bit of ‘Loony Intelligence’ in the process.
For further information and more in depth discussion on this subject, please contact us by clicking this link:
