Crafting the cynical generation

...continuing our conversation in the Economics of Taxation series (part 2)



A European Generation ‘E’ enquiry – (‘E’ for employment)


Referring to our previous article entitled ‘The Economics of Taxation’, today we elaborate and flesh out the basic ideas around taxation.


The basic idea is that any form of taxation becomes a drain on productive resources and at some point counter productive in attempts at balancing the government budget.  For a fuller explanation of the effects of tax rate rises see the Laffer Curve analysis and the Cato Institute’s Dan Mitchell explain the Centre for Freedom and Prosperity’s view on Fiscal policy.

 Source: Wikipedia – Laffer Curve

Two specific points are made by Dan Mitchell in his explanation, which bears thinking about:

• We don’t necessarily want to be at the point on the curve where government revenue is maximised, due to other factors such as the disincentives of maximising tax declaration by tax payers or the cost of collecting that revenue in the first place (sub-optimisation effects)

• Growth (in the economy) incentives fall well short on the upward side of the Laffer curve.  In plain English this means that economic growth is maximised somewhere where people have the incentive to retain as much of their hard earned income and that point is somewhere well before we reach the Government Revenue maximising point.  (The second Laffer Curve graph above captures this point in a more visual and understandable format).  At point D on the curve economic growth will be maximised and note how it still falls well short of the Government Revenue maximising point B.

The behavioural question that fascinates us at theMarketSoul ©1999 – 2011 is how come citizens in Europe are able to tolerate so much more of an overall higher tax rate burden than our cousins across the pond in the United States?

theMarketSoul ©2011






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A cynical swipe at the money (value chain) consumer end of the line

Today’s short opinion piece revolves around the recent rail fare increases announced in the UK.

It strikes us as a very cynical way of rewarding behaviour and policies implemented by previous governments and parliaments to now go and increase the ‘tax’ on rail commuters when the switching policy from road to rail has meant that more rail passenger miles are being racked up versus road miles and supposedly turning off the tax flows into the Treasury from fuel duties, because more rail journeys are being undertaken.

Yet again the pendulum has swung the other way and at the consumer end of the bargain, we are being sent a confusing message us to which behaviours the government wants to encourage us to take. 

No wonder the general malaise of cynicism and anti democratic behaviours we have recently experienced has and will manifest itself again.

Less government, less interference, less confusion.  Let the (a well governed) market help efficiently incentivise people to do the right thing at the right time for the right price.

theMarketSoul  ©2011

For more information about the Economics of Taxation just click the link in this sentence

International Journal of Transport Economics

The Economics of Social breakdown

How do we define the state of our nation at the moment?

For a little while now we have been experiencing an ‘unease’ with the communication revolution and the disparate nature of communication tools at our disposal. On the surface it would appear that what is happening is that rather than bind together a society it is having exactly the opposite effect.

The recent riots in the UK is just a small manifestation of this general unease.

From a purely economic and dispassionate analysis of the situation, we would offer the following opinion:

We don’t have a ‘broken society‘, as is such an often uttered phrase, but rather a complete misunderstanding of the disconnect between our ‘old / slow business models’ and the pace at which technology moves and changes the rules of engagement.

The pace of change in organisational design, planning and execution models lags multiple-fold behind the pace of technological advancement. It almost has an exponential relationship and due to this factor, we have not yet come to grips with applying new technology to ‘old world’ thinking, with its checks and balances and control mechanisms.

The disconnect between the pace of the communication revolution and the nature of diminishing returns has led to a massive gap in appreciating the fact the occasionally we have to pause and reflect on where we are and where we want to be.

Both the continuing economic crisis, pace of change, realisation that the future does not hold the same promise and prosperity as the recent past; are all infliction points that have amplified and spilled over into anger and the violence of the past few days.

So what we have is a ‘broken understanding’ of how different factors of production, such as land, labour, capital, enterprise and innovation has drifted further apart and caused unnecessary and unsustainable concentrations of accumulated power and risk amongst differing population groupings in the UK and elsewhere.

Remember, all five of these factors of production listed above need to work in harmony, in order to add, create and manage value and output that are useful and life sustaining necessities for all citizens.

Let’s address the gap between political and civil society to ensure sustainable progress and development for all.

theMarketSoul © 2011

So it has finally happened. After threatening for months that a credit rating down grade was probable for the USA, Standard & Poor's finally took the 'big step' on Friday 5 August, after the major markets closed.







So what next?






In our article 'US Treasuries - Are the markets really that bothered?' published on 30 July 2011, we argued that the markets were not really bothered, as both 5 & 7 year T-Bill currently delivered a negative Real Return to investors.






Everyone is dreading the opening bells in stock capital and forex market on Monday, yet we believe the fundamental question for this week will be:






Is this an FX or market call?






What we meanby this question is:






Will the markets and market participants see the down grade as an opportunity to play an FX gain game; or has the game fundamentally shifted and will the capital markets react by demanding a higher nominal or at least Real Return on US Treasury bills?






All pointers at the moment did not indicate a problem, but time will tell on whether a fundamental shift in attitude has occurred. Remember a credit rating is only a qualitative indicator, not a quantitative one, so on a technical call a few FX traders and investors might make a profit or two; but we are all waiting to see if the entire game has changed, or not.






Other factors that might come into play soon would be QE3 and attitude hardening by major T-Bill investors.






How the US Treasury and administration now react will be crucial.






Who are we going to trust to make this big call?






theMarketSoul © 2011

Economics of Taxation

 

There are in essence only two ways of taxing citizens:

1.       A Tax on Stock (Wealth)

2.       A Tax on Flows (Income or consumption)

Within these two tax methodologies are hidden the minutiae of the tax regime system, but at a fundamental level, any tax raising authority has to look at these two options / methodologies available to them.

Now step back second and consider the tax take flows from these two options:

With Incomes and consumption generally on the wane, where else can the taxing authority turn for sustaining or growing there net tax take?  Only on the stock of capital assets held by its citizens, so expect a sustained, possibly nuanced, yet blatant attack on your net wealth over the coming few years.

Another salvo  was launched again from the Business Secretary, Vince Cable, yesterday and we expect a sustained rhetoric and action in the next budget cycle.  Today, the main stream press are reporting rumour of lower the 50% rate to 45%, to encourage an inflow of entrepreneurial and highly skilled management talent, reversing the recent drain or threat of ‘brain drain’ from taxpayers in this tax rate band.

theMarketSoul ©2011

A sigh of relief?

Some say that in life timing is everything...

And so too it is with economics.  We don’t yet have a fully developed and ‘mature’ [in terms of life-cycle] grasp of the impact of timing with leads and lags in the economy in general.

Yes, we have very sophisticated and advance models, analytics, knowledge management, quantitative theories, etc.; but we still do not fully comprehend the impact of time and timing in general on the factors of production influencing our ‘modern’ global economy.

In short, it looks like the potential calamitous US Debt Ceiling crisis has been averted (events during Monday 1 August still need to unfurl), meaning that the US nation can continue to settle its debt obligations for a little while longer, without President Obama having to resort to the 14^th Amendment.

And this is where the timing conversation picks up its thread again.  The Debt Ceiling needs to the raised in order to settle obligations already incurred, not new spending.  Therefore, the future continues to look uncertain for the point at which ‘peak US Debt’ will be reached and how long creditor nations and other institutions will continue to fund the US appetite for amassing what seems to be an insurmountable and unsustainable level of sovereign debt.  In our previous article we discussed the negative Real US T-Bill Yields on both new 5 and 7 year US Treasuries.  If this is anything to go by, ‘peak US Debt’ must still be little while off in the distant future.

If only we could get the timing thing right and have a more insightful and meaningful (adult) debate not just in the US, but including global partners, both creditors and debtors alike.

But such is the nature of markets and spontaneous order, as espoused by our friends at the Austrian School, that we still believe and endorse the fact that ‘the market’ is still the best and most efficient mechanism for allocating resources (even financial and debt instruments) and informing the participants of potential risks and opportunities for clearing this market.

theMarketSoul ©2011

The Theory of Money and Credit